Kenya’s population is projected to reach 95 million in 2050 and 142 million by the turn of the century
A new report shows how demographic trends could stall unprecedented progress in reducing global poverty.
While one billion people have lifted themselves out of poverty over the past 20 years, rapid population growth in the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, puts future progress at risk.
The second annual Goalkeepers Data Report, released by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, says if current trends continue, the number of extremely poor people in the world could stop its two-decade decline—and could even rise.
Despite the sobering projections, Bill and Melinda Gates express optimism that today’s growing youth populations could help drive progress.
Kenya’s current population of nearly 50 million is projected to reach 95 million in 2050 and 142 million by the start of the 22nd century, according to projections released by United Nations last year.
Investing in the health and education of young people in Africa could unlock productivity and innovation, leading to a “third wave” of poverty reduction, which follows the first wave in China and the second in India.
“The conclusion is clear: To continue improving the human condition, our task now is to help create opportunities in Africa’s fastest-growing, poorest countries,” Bill and Melinda Gates write in the introduction. “This means investing in young people. Specifically, it means investing in their health and education.”
Goalkeepers: The Stories Behind the Data 2018 was co-authored and edited by Bill and Melinda Gates and produced in partnership with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Using new data projections, the report reveals that poverty within Africa is concentrating in just a handful of countries, which are among the fastest-growing in the world.
By 2050, more than 40 percent of the extremely poor people in the world will live in just two countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.
In the past, large youth populations have helped drive economic growth and poverty reduction. The report makes the case for leaders to invest in the power and potential of youth to continue progress.
Through essays by experts and journalists, the report examines promising approaches in health and education, highlighting ways that young people could help transform the continent. According to the report, investments in health and education, or “human capital,” in sub-Saharan Africa could increase GDP in the region by more than 90 percent by 2050.
Each year, the report tracks 18 data points from the UN Sustainable Development Goals, or Global Goals, including child and maternal deaths, stunting, access to contraceptives, HIV, malaria, extreme poverty, financial inclusion, and sanitation.
IHME projections provide three potential scenarios for indicators: better and worse scenarios based upon accelerating or reducing the rate of progress, and projections based upon current trends.
This year’s report examines family planning, with an essay by Alex Ezeh, the Executive Director of the African Population and Health Research
and a visiting fellow with the Center for Global Development.
Former US President Barack Obama, Melinda and Bill Gates speak at the 2017 Goalkeepers event in New York.
The essay focuses on the importance of empowering women so they can exercise their fundamental right to choose the number of children they will have, when they will have them, and with whom.
Ezeh notes that according to data from the United Nations, Africa’s population is projected to double in size by 2050 and could double again by 2100. If every woman in sub-Saharan Africa were empowered to have the number of children she wants, the projected population increase could be up to 30 percent smaller, from four billion to 2.8 billion.
Most critically, this would enable more girls and women to expand their horizons, stay in school longer, have children later, earn more as adults, and invest more in their children. The chapter also explores how a novel family planning program in Kenya is providing young women with access to contraceptives.
There is also a HIV chapter which includes modeling by Imperial College London for what Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic might look like in 2050 and, thus, what the nation’s overall future holds. Its large number of young people have the potential to drive economic growth, but only if they remain healthy. More than half of Zimbabweans are under 25 years old and reaching the age when they are most at risk for HIV infection.
If Zimbabwe scales up currently available prevention tools over the next five years, it could see new infections among 15- to 29-year-olds drop by a third within a decade. The introduction of new prevention tools by 2030, including a highly efficacious vaccine, could further reduce new cases to approximately 400 per year. Together, these interventions could avert up to 364,000 new cases of HIV among young people.
The Education chapter includes an essay by Ashish Dhawan, chairman of the Central Square Foundation in India. Although more students in low- and lower-middle-income countries are enrolled in school today than ever before, many are not learning what they need to succeed. Unfortunately, the strategy for improving school outcomes is not as clear-cut as the strategy for improving school access. The chapter examines Vietnam’s success in achieving system-wide improvements. Though the country’s per capita GDP is only slightly higher than India’s, Vietnam’s 15-year-olds outperform students from wealthy countries like the United States and the United Kingdom on international tests.
The Agriculture chapter includes analysis by James Thurlow, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, estimating that by doubling agricultural productivity, Ghana could cut poverty in half, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and drive economic growth. An essay by a local journalist follows the journey of a tomato from a field in rural Burkina Faso to a plate in Ghana, illustrating how many jobs it creates along the way.
Bill and Melinda Gates said it will produce the Goalkeepers Data Report every year through 2030, timing it to the annual gathering of world leaders in New York City for the UN General Assembly. The report is designed to highlight best practices and help hold the Gates Foundation, its partners, and leaders around the world accountable. It aims to document not just what is working, but where the world is falling short.
Kenyan musician King Kaka is among the Goalkeepers in the 2018 event.
In conjunction with the report, Bill and Melinda Gates are once again co-hosting the Goalkeepers event in New York City during the UN General Assembly. On September 26, dynamic young leaders from government, business, technology, media, entertainment, and the nonprofit sector will discuss innovations and approaches to achieve the Global Goals. Participants include young leaders like David Sengeh, chief innovation officer for the government of Sierra Leone; Trisha Shetty, Indian lawyer, social activist, and founder of SheSays; King Kaka, Kenyan musician and activist; and Aranya Johar, Indian spoken word poet. Other speakers include Graça Machel, international advocate for women and children's rights and co-founder of the Graça Machel Trust; Richard Curtis, writer, campaigner, and Project Everyone co-founder; and Stephen Fry, actor, writer, and presenter. Performers include British singer songwriter Ed Sheeran and the Brooklyn Youth Chorus. Additional speakers will be announced soon.
Co-hosted by Bill and Melinda Gates, the Goalkeepers Global Goals Awards will be presented on September 25, the evening before the Goalkeepers daytime event. In partnership with the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and UNICEF, the awards will celebrate outstanding youth-focused work around the world that is directly linked to the 17 Global Goals. The four award categories include the Progress Award, Changemaker Award, Campaign Award, and Global Goalkeeper Award.